A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
